Started off looking like they might start crawling out of the hole, then it all went to shit again when Trump hit the Chicoms with 104% tariffs starting Wednesday.
The markets can't decide
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Remember that time in 2022 the Nasdaq dropped 30% and the S&P 500 was down 20% and the media spent the year telling us that we weren’t in a recession and in fact the definition of a recession we had always used wasn’t actually correct? And Joe Biden was at the top of his game and his aides couldn't keep up with him? Believe nothing they say.👍 2Comment
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Do not look at the market every day unless you are doing something dumb like puts and calls. Day traders and insiders are pumping and dumping the market on headlines. The true reason the market is down is the fed is refusing to lower interest rates. The tariffs might be in play but I doubt it. China has been tanking for a while so their market is not doing well which will hurt tech firms in the US. There is rumor there is some type of shake up and purge going on between Xi and the PLA. Some generals are opposing Xi for his lack of action on Taiwan or so I hear. Also, China's housing market has tanked. China was and is a stupid trading partner and it is going to come to an end whether by financial collapse or war.Comment
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NEW: Scott Bessent says Trump didn’t just raise tariffs—he set a trap, and China walked right into it.Comment
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China has three options:
1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart
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I don't try to time the market and ignore all its short term gyrations. My strategy for decades is a simple "buy and hold" in no-load, low cost stock mutual funds. For the past 10 years or so, I've moved most of my IRA money to stock index funds. They're boring, but perform well over time.
The most important piece of advice I was given about investing years ago:
- Don't invest in anything you don't understand.
- Don't try to time the market.
- If your investments keep you awake at night, you're in the wrong investments.Comment
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